Argument 155  (evidence类题型)

　　The brief passage:

　　The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client. "Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

　　The Introduction:

　　Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

　　The sample answer:

　　Having noticed a couple of developments in the northeastern United States, the firm advises an investment on Consolidated Industries whose major business is the retail sale of home heating oil. Proofs of the increased demand for heating oil, though, are afforded, a couple of critical flaws make the argument less likely to be verifiable. Only when more verification on the increased demand is given could the proposal be more advisable.

　　The local weather forecasters predict the continuity of the weather pattern after noticing a twenty-day long below-normal temperature in this area.

　　Investors may be agitated to invest in home heating oil when temperature goes down （适当让步，使句间衔接更自然）. Yet, below-average temperatures are not necessarily to boost the sales of heating oil as residents may feel there is no need to consume more heating oil when the lower temperature is bearable. Supposing the temperature is significantly low, it is suspicious the weather pattern will last as long as several years. After all, a weather pattern of twenty days may be by accident rather than of certainty. Apart from that, the weather forecast released by the local forecaster is likely to be unreliable when he or she is unqualified or inexperienced（evidence题型在写的时候既要分析proposed evidence还要补充新的evidence）. Hence, the aforementioned flaws make the weather pattern predicted unlikely to be accurate, which weakens the validity that the demand for heating oil will increase.

　　For another, that new homes have been build is mentioned in order to substantiate the prediction is tenable. If all these new homes are occupied, they are likely to be new customers of heating oil. The thing is, yet, there is high possibility that they are vacant （细节的补充也可以用短句子来调整论证节奏）. Even though habitants have moved in this residential area, it is questionable they use oil to heat. Other alternative resources like electricity, water or natural gas may be more preferred whenenvironmental protection is advocated in local areas（用两句话说清楚一个点要注意每句话的简洁性，清晰度）. If heating oil is their only choice, the demand for it is not necessarily to be higher as the efficiency of using it may beimproved in new homes. The flaws mentioned above indicate the construction of new homes does not ensure more consumption of heating oil.

　　Conclusion

　　（略）