Although it is known that there has been a 200-percent increase in the number of accidents caused by bicycling, what remains a question is about the total number of bicyclists and the number ten years ago. If there have been more bicyclists on the road, the chance of having accidents has actually decreased although the number of accidents has increased. For example, 10 accidents out of 1000 bicyclists represents a lower percentage than 5 accidents out of 200 bicyclists.

A crucial yet deceptive assumption is that the two plants have the same scale of production—the number of production activities or products. At this point, the author confuses the number of accidents with the incidence of accidents. In fact, Quiot may have a lower rate of accidents despite its 30 percent more accidents. For example, 13 accidents out of 1000 production activities equals an accident rate of 1.3%, and this rate would be lower than Panoply’s if there are 10 accidents out of 500 production activities at Panoply.